AI Model Release Timeline — Prediction Market Forecasts

Generated 2026-07-22 08:45 UTC from daily Polymarket price history and live quotes.

Jul 22, 2026

Overview

Median forecast dates

Circle: median · Solid line: 25–75% IQR · Vertical cursor: forecast date · Arrow: percentile beyond priced horizon · Grey: no median or unavailable on selected date

Claude Mythos 5 access restored
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 12?
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?
Next Claude Opus
Anthropic announces permanent paid plan access for Fable 5
Anthropic removes paid plan access for Fable 5
Gemini 4.0
New Gemini reasoning flagship
Next Google Gemini Pro Model
Next Mythos-Class Model
GPT-6
Next Claude Sonnet
Next Claude Haiku
Jul 1Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1Nov 1Dec 1Jan 1
Model or changeProviderDate signal
Claude Mythos 5 access restored Anthropic Not available on this date
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 12? Anthropic Not available on this date
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19? Anthropic Not available on this date
Next Claude Opus Anthropic Median Jul 27, 2026
Anthropic announces permanent paid plan access for Fable 5 Anthropic Not available on this date
Anthropic removes paid plan access for Fable 5 Anthropic No median; 1.2% probability by Jul 31, 2026
Gemini 4.0 Google No median; 0.9% probability by Jul 31, 2026
New Gemini reasoning flagship Google No median; 40% probability by Jul 31, 2026
Next Google Gemini Pro Model Google Median Aug 6, 2026
Next Mythos-Class Model Anthropic Median Sep 8, 2026
GPT-6 OpenAI Median Sep 9, 2026
Next Claude Sonnet Anthropic Median Oct 6, 2026
Next Claude Haiku Anthropic Median Dec 2, 2026
  1. Anthropic
    $367k volume

    Next Claude Opus

    median release

    The combined distribution reaches 99% by Dec 31, 2026.

    Next Claude Opus release probability Jul 15, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Jul 16, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Jul 17, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Jul 18, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Jul 19, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Jul 20, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Jul 21, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Jul 22, 2026 2.7% cumulative, Jul 23, 2026 21% cumulative, Jul 24, 2026 40% cumulative, Jul 25, 2026 42% cumulative, Jul 26, 2026 44% cumulative, Jul 27, 2026 56% cumulative, Jul 28, 2026 62% cumulative, Jul 29, 2026 71% cumulative, Jul 30, 2026 77% cumulative, Jul 31, 2026 84% cumulative, Aug 31, 2026 94% cumulative, Oct 31, 2026 98% cumulative, Dec 31, 2026 99% cumulative. Forecast as of Jul 22, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Jul 22 PDF · probability rate per day 19%/day 0% Jul 15Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1Nov 1Dec 1Dec 31

    Markets: By-deadline market · Exact-date market

    release forecast (combined by/on markets)

  2. Anthropic
    $44k volume

    Anthropic removes paid plan access for Fable 5

    Only 1.2% probability by Jul 31, 2026

    Later dates are not priced by this market, so no median date for the change is inferred.

    Anthropic removes paid plan access for Fable 5 change probability Jul 21, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Jul 31, 2026 1.2% cumulative. Forecast as of Jul 22, 2026. CDF · probability change occurred by date 100% 50% 0% as of Jul 22 PDF · change probability rate per day 0.1%/day 0% Jul 21Jul 31

    Markets: Deadline market

    consumer change forecast (multi-deadline)

  3. Google
    $323k volume

    New Gemini reasoning flagship

    Only 40% probability by Jul 31, 2026

    Later dates are not priced by these markets, so no median release date is inferred.

    New Gemini reasoning flagship release probability Jul 21, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Jul 31, 2026 40% cumulative. Forecast as of Jul 22, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% as of Jul 22 PDF · probability rate per day 4.0%/day 0% Jul 21Jul 31

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast

  4. Google
    $108k volume

    Gemini 4.0

    Only 0.9% probability by Jul 31, 2026

    Later dates are not priced by these markets, so no median release date is inferred.

    Gemini 4.0 release probability Jul 21, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Jul 31, 2026 0.9% cumulative. Forecast as of Jul 22, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% as of Jul 22 PDF · probability rate per day 0.1%/day 0% Jul 21Jul 31

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast

  5. Google
    $601k volume

    Next Google Gemini Pro Model

    median release

    The combined distribution reaches 86% by Aug 31, 2026.

    Next Google Gemini Pro Model release probability Jul 1, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Jul 2, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Jul 3, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Jul 4, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Jul 5, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Jul 6, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Jul 7, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Jul 8, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Jul 9, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Jul 10, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Jul 11, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Jul 12, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Jul 13, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Jul 14, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Jul 15, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Jul 16, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Jul 17, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Jul 18, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Jul 19, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Jul 20, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Jul 21, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Jul 22, 2026 0.4% cumulative, Jul 23, 2026 0.7% cumulative, Jul 24, 2026 2.7% cumulative, Jul 25, 2026 4.7% cumulative, Jul 26, 2026 4.9% cumulative, Jul 27, 2026 4.9% cumulative, Jul 28, 2026 4.9% cumulative, Jul 29, 2026 4.9% cumulative, Jul 30, 2026 4.9% cumulative, Jul 31, 2026 5.3% cumulative, Aug 7, 2026 59% cumulative, Aug 31, 2026 86% cumulative. Forecast as of Jul 22, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Jul 22 PDF · probability rate per day 7.7%/day 0% Jul 1Aug 1Aug 31

    Markets: By-deadline market · Exact-date market

    release forecast (combined by/on markets)

  6. Anthropic
    $66k volume

    Next Mythos-Class Model

    median release

    The combined distribution reaches 80% by Sep 30, 2026.

    Next Mythos-Class Model release probability Jul 31, 2026 7.5% cumulative, Aug 31, 2026 38% cumulative, Sep 30, 2026 80% cumulative. Forecast as of Jul 22, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Jul 22 PDF · probability rate per day 7.5%/day 0% Jul 22Aug 1Sep 1Sep 30

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast

  7. OpenAI
    $639k volume

    GPT-6

    median release

    The combined distribution reaches 88% by Dec 31, 2026.

    GPT-6 release probability Jul 21, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Jul 31, 2026 0.5% cumulative, Aug 7, 2026 1.5% cumulative, Aug 14, 2026 6.3% cumulative, Aug 21, 2026 26% cumulative, Aug 31, 2026 39% cumulative, Sep 30, 2026 74% cumulative, Dec 31, 2026 88% cumulative. Forecast as of Jul 22, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Jul 22 PDF · probability rate per day 2.7%/day 0% Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1Nov 1Dec 1Dec 31

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast

  8. Anthropic
    $3k volume

    Next Claude Sonnet

    median release

    The combined distribution reaches 95% by Dec 31, 2026.

    Next Claude Sonnet release probability Aug 31, 2026 26% cumulative, Oct 31, 2026 66% cumulative, Dec 31, 2026 95% cumulative. Forecast as of Jul 22, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Jul 22 PDF · probability rate per day 26%/day 0% Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1Nov 1Dec 1Dec 31

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast

  9. Anthropic
    $3k volume

    Next Claude Haiku

    median release

    The combined distribution reaches 53% by Dec 31, 2026.

    Next Claude Haiku release probability Aug 31, 2026 47% cumulative, Oct 31, 2026 47% cumulative, Dec 31, 2026 53% cumulative. Forecast as of Jul 22, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Jul 22 PDF · probability rate per day 47%/day 0% Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1Nov 1Dec 1Dec 31

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast