AI Model Release Timeline — Prediction Market Forecasts

Generated 2026-10-20 17:01 UTC from daily Polymarket price history and live quotes.

Oct 20, 2026

Overview

Median forecast dates

Circle: median · Solid line: 25–75% IQR · Vertical cursor: forecast date · Arrow: percentile beyond priced horizon · Grey: no median or unavailable on selected date

Next Claude Opus
Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+)
Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+)
Next GPT Sol Model (5.7+)
Next Claude Sonnet
Next GPT Luna Model (5.7+)
Gemini 4.0
Gemini Argon
Next Claude Haiku (4.6+)
Next Fable Model (5.2+)
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+)
Next Gemini Pro Model
Astra removed from public access
When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?
Next Claude Opus (5.6+)
Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+)
Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+)
Next GPT Luna (6.1+)
Next GPT Sol (6.1+)
Next GPT Sol (6.2+)
GPT Astra 6.1+
Gemini Spark on the free plan
Next Google Gemini Pro Model
ChatGPT Dots on the free plan
Next Claude Haiku (5.6+)
Next Claude Sonnet (5.6+)
Next Gemini Argon
Next GPT Image Model (2.6+)
Claude 6
Claude Fable 5.2+: Output Token Price Debut?
Claude Opus 5.6+: Output Token Price Debut?
Claude Sonnet 5.1+: Output Token Price Debut?
GPT Astra 6.1+: Output Token Price Debut?
GPT Sol 6.1+: Output Token Price Debut?
GPT-7
Sep 19Oct 1Nov 1Dec 1Jan 1Feb 1Mar 1Apr 1May 1Jun 1Jul 1Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1Nov 1Dec 1Oct 12Oct 19Oct 26Nov 9Nov 16Nov 23Dec 7Dec 14Dec 21Jan 11Jan 18Jan 25Feb 8Feb 15Feb 22Mar 8Mar 15Mar 22Apr 12Apr 19Apr 26May 10May 17May 24Jun 7Jun 14Jun 21Jul 12Jul 19Jul 26Aug 9Aug 16Aug 23Sep 6Sep 13Sep 20Oct 11Oct 18Oct 25Nov 8Nov 15Nov 22Today
Model or changeProviderDate signal
Next Claude Opus Anthropic Not available on this date
Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) OpenAI Not available on this date
Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) OpenAI Not available on this date
Next GPT Sol Model (5.7+) OpenAI Not available on this date
Next Claude Sonnet Anthropic Not available on this date
Next GPT Luna Model (5.7+) OpenAI Not available on this date
Gemini 4.0 Google Not available on this date
Gemini Argon Google Not available on this date
Next Claude Haiku (4.6+) Anthropic Not available on this date
Next Fable Model (5.2+) Anthropic Median Oct 27, 2026
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) OpenAI Median Oct 29, 2026
Next Gemini Pro Model Google No median; 3.7% probability by Oct 31, 2026
Astra removed from public access OpenAI No median; 2.0% probability by Oct 31, 2026
When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released? Google Median Nov 1, 2026
Next Claude Opus (5.6+) Anthropic Median Nov 20, 2026
Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) Google Median Nov 21, 2026
Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) Google Median Nov 30, 2026
Next GPT Luna (6.1+) OpenAI Median Nov 30, 2026
Next GPT Sol (6.1+) OpenAI Not available on this date
Next GPT Sol (6.2+) OpenAI Median Nov 30, 2026
GPT Astra 6.1+ OpenAI Median Dec 4, 2026
Gemini Spark on the free plan Google No median; 43% probability by Dec 31, 2026
Next Google Gemini Pro Model Google No median; 30% probability by Dec 31, 2026
ChatGPT Dots on the free plan OpenAI No median; 28% probability by Dec 31, 2026
Next Claude Haiku (5.6+) Anthropic No median; 26% probability by Jan 31, 2027
Next Claude Sonnet (5.6+) Anthropic No median; 40% probability by Jan 31, 2027
Next Gemini Argon Google No median; 28% probability by Jan 31, 2027
Next GPT Image Model (2.6+) OpenAI No median; 50% probability by Jan 31, 2027
Claude 6 Anthropic Median Apr 30, 2027
Claude Fable 5.2+: Output Token Price Debut? Anthropic No median; 48% probability by Jun 30, 2027
Claude Opus 5.6+: Output Token Price Debut? Anthropic No median; 1.7% probability by Jun 30, 2027
Claude Sonnet 5.1+: Output Token Price Debut? Anthropic Not available on this date
GPT Astra 6.1+: Output Token Price Debut? OpenAI Median Jun 30, 2027
GPT Sol 6.1+: Output Token Price Debut? OpenAI Not available on this date
GPT-7 OpenAI Median Aug 10, 2027
  1. Anthropic
    $880k volume

    Next Fable Model (5.2+)

    median release

    The combined distribution reaches 98% by Dec 31, 2026.

    Next Fable Model (5.2+) release probability Oct 3, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Oct 4, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Oct 5, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Oct 6, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Oct 7, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Oct 8, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Oct 9, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Oct 10, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Oct 11, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Oct 12, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Oct 13, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Oct 14, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Oct 15, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Oct 16, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Oct 17, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Oct 18, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Oct 19, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Oct 20, 2026 18% cumulative, Oct 21, 2026 22% cumulative, Oct 22, 2026 32% cumulative, Oct 23, 2026 33% cumulative, Oct 24, 2026 34% cumulative, Oct 25, 2026 35% cumulative, Oct 26, 2026 38% cumulative, Oct 27, 2026 52% cumulative, Oct 28, 2026 55% cumulative, Oct 29, 2026 60% cumulative, Oct 30, 2026 79% cumulative, Oct 31, 2026 81% cumulative, Dec 31, 2026 98% cumulative. Forecast as of Oct 20, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Oct 20 PDF · probability rate per day 19%/day 0% Oct 3Nov 1Dec 1Dec 31

    Markets: By-deadline market · Exact-date market

    release forecast (combined by/on markets)

  2. OpenAI
    $51k volume

    Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+)

    median release

    The combined distribution reaches 87% by Nov 30, 2026.

    Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) release probability Oct 19, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Oct 31, 2026 63% cumulative, Nov 30, 2026 87% cumulative. Forecast as of Oct 20, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Oct 20 PDF · probability rate per day 5.2%/day 0% Oct 19Nov 1Nov 30

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast

  3. Google
    $126k volume

    Next Gemini Pro Model

    Only 3.7% probability by Oct 31, 2026

    Later dates are not priced by these markets, so no median release date is inferred.

    Next Gemini Pro Model release probability Oct 1, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Oct 2, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Oct 3, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Oct 4, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Oct 5, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Oct 6, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Oct 7, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Oct 8, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Oct 9, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Oct 10, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Oct 11, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Oct 12, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Oct 13, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Oct 14, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Oct 15, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Oct 16, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Oct 17, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Oct 18, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Oct 19, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Oct 20, 2026 0.5% cumulative, Oct 21, 2026 0.6% cumulative, Oct 22, 2026 0.7% cumulative, Oct 23, 2026 1.1% cumulative, Oct 24, 2026 1.4% cumulative, Oct 25, 2026 1.5% cumulative, Oct 26, 2026 1.9% cumulative, Oct 27, 2026 2.7% cumulative, Oct 28, 2026 3.0% cumulative, Oct 29, 2026 3.2% cumulative, Oct 30, 2026 3.7% cumulative, Oct 31, 2026 3.7% cumulative. Forecast as of Oct 20, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% as of Oct 20 PDF · probability rate per day 0.9%/day 0% Oct 1Oct 31

    Markets: Exact-date market

    release forecast

  4. OpenAI
    $7k volume

    Astra removed from public access

    Only 2.0% probability by Oct 31, 2026

    Later dates are not priced by this market, so no median date for the change is inferred.

    Astra removed from public access change probability Oct 19, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Oct 31, 2026 2.0% cumulative. Forecast as of Oct 20, 2026. CDF · probability change occurred by date 100% 50% 0% as of Oct 20 PDF · change probability rate per day 0.2%/day 0% Oct 19Oct 31

    Markets: Deadline market

    consumer change forecast (multi-deadline)

  5. Google
    $314k volume

    When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?

    median date for change

    The cumulative probability reaches 96% by Nov 1, 2026.

    When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released? change probability Nov 1, 2026 96% cumulative. Forecast as of Oct 20, 2026. CDF · probability change occurred by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Oct 20 PDF · change probability rate per day 96%/day 0% Oct 20Nov 1

    Markets: Deadline market

    consumer change forecast (multi-deadline)

  6. Anthropic
    $11k volume

    Next Claude Opus (5.6+)

    median release

    The combined distribution reaches 83% by Dec 31, 2026.

    Next Claude Opus (5.6+) release probability Oct 31, 2026 13% cumulative, Nov 30, 2026 68% cumulative, Dec 31, 2026 83% cumulative. Forecast as of Oct 20, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Oct 20 PDF · probability rate per day 13%/day 0% Oct 20Nov 1Dec 1Dec 31

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast

  7. Google
    $13k volume

    Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+)

    median release

    The combined distribution reaches 67% by Nov 30, 2026.

    Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) release probability Oct 19, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Oct 31, 2026 9.0% cumulative, Nov 30, 2026 67% cumulative. Forecast as of Oct 20, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Oct 20 PDF · probability rate per day 1.9%/day 0% Oct 19Nov 1Nov 30

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast

  8. Google
    $11k volume

    Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+)

    median release

    The combined distribution reaches 50% by Nov 30, 2026.

    Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) release probability Oct 19, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Oct 31, 2026 16% cumulative, Nov 30, 2026 50% cumulative. Forecast as of Oct 20, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Oct 20 PDF · probability rate per day 1.3%/day 0% Oct 19Nov 1Nov 30

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast

  9. OpenAI
    $6k volume

    Next GPT Luna (6.1+)

    median release

    The combined distribution reaches 88% by Dec 31, 2026.

    Next GPT Luna (6.1+) release probability Nov 30, 2026 61% cumulative, Dec 31, 2026 88% cumulative. Forecast as of Oct 20, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Oct 20 PDF · probability rate per day 61%/day 0% Oct 20Nov 1Dec 1Dec 31

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast

  10. OpenAI
    $5k volume

    Next GPT Sol (6.2+)

    median release

    The combined distribution reaches 74% by Dec 31, 2026.

    Next GPT Sol (6.2+) release probability Nov 30, 2026 52% cumulative, Dec 31, 2026 74% cumulative. Forecast as of Oct 20, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Oct 20 PDF · probability rate per day 52%/day 0% Oct 20Nov 1Dec 1Dec 31

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast

  11. OpenAI
    $339k volume

    GPT Astra 6.1+

    median release

    The combined distribution reaches 86% by Dec 31, 2026.

    GPT Astra 6.1+ release probability Oct 19, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Oct 23, 2026 7.0% cumulative, Oct 31, 2026 18% cumulative, Nov 30, 2026 45% cumulative, Dec 31, 2026 86% cumulative. Forecast as of Oct 20, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Oct 20 PDF · probability rate per day 1.8%/day 0% Oct 19Nov 1Dec 1Dec 31

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast

  12. Google
    $1.7m volume

    Next Google Gemini Pro Model

    Only 30% probability by Dec 31, 2026

    Later dates are not priced by these markets, so no median release date is inferred.

    Next Google Gemini Pro Model release probability Oct 19, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Oct 23, 2026 1.7% cumulative, Oct 31, 2026 3.1% cumulative, Nov 30, 2026 21% cumulative, Dec 31, 2026 30% cumulative. Forecast as of Oct 20, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% as of Oct 20 PDF · probability rate per day 0.6%/day 0% Oct 19Nov 1Dec 1Dec 31

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast

  13. Google
    $3k volume

    Gemini Spark on the free plan

    Only 43% probability by Dec 31, 2026

    Later dates are not priced by this market, so no median date for the change is inferred.

    Gemini Spark on the free plan change probability Oct 31, 2026 1.8% cumulative, Dec 31, 2026 43% cumulative. Forecast as of Oct 20, 2026. CDF · probability change occurred by date 100% 50% 0% as of Oct 20 PDF · change probability rate per day 1.8%/day 0% Oct 20Nov 1Dec 1Dec 31

    Markets: Deadline market

    consumer change forecast (multi-deadline)

  14. OpenAI
    $2k volume

    ChatGPT Dots on the free plan

    Only 28% probability by Dec 31, 2026

    Later dates are not priced by this market, so no median date for the change is inferred.

    ChatGPT Dots on the free plan change probability Oct 31, 2026 3.5% cumulative, Dec 31, 2026 28% cumulative. Forecast as of Oct 20, 2026. CDF · probability change occurred by date 100% 50% 0% as of Oct 20 PDF · change probability rate per day 3.5%/day 0% Oct 20Nov 1Dec 1Dec 31

    Markets: Deadline market

    consumer change forecast (multi-deadline)

  15. Anthropic
    $2k volume

    Next Claude Sonnet (5.6+)

    Only 40% probability by Jan 31, 2027

    Later dates are not priced by these markets, so no median release date is inferred.

    Next Claude Sonnet (5.6+) release probability Dec 31, 2026 27% cumulative, Jan 31, 2027 40% cumulative. Forecast as of Oct 20, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% as of Oct 20 PDF · probability rate per day 27%/day 0% Oct 20Nov 1Dec 1Jan 1Jan 31

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast

  16. Anthropic
    $1k volume

    Next Claude Haiku (5.6+)

    Only 26% probability by Jan 31, 2027

    Later dates are not priced by these markets, so no median release date is inferred.

    Next Claude Haiku (5.6+) release probability Dec 31, 2026 26% cumulative, Jan 31, 2027 26% cumulative. Forecast as of Oct 20, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% as of Oct 20 PDF · probability rate per day 26%/day 0% Oct 20Nov 1Dec 1Jan 1Jan 31

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast

  17. Google
    $4k volume

    Next Gemini Argon

    Only 28% probability by Jan 31, 2027

    Later dates are not priced by these markets, so no median release date is inferred.

    Next Gemini Argon release probability Dec 31, 2026 16% cumulative, Jan 31, 2027 28% cumulative. Forecast as of Oct 20, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% as of Oct 20 PDF · probability rate per day 16%/day 0% Oct 20Nov 1Dec 1Jan 1Jan 31

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast

  18. OpenAI
    $36 volume

    Next GPT Image Model (2.6+)

    Only 50% probability by Jan 31, 2027

    Later dates are not priced by these markets, so no median release date is inferred.

    Next GPT Image Model (2.6+) release probability Dec 31, 2026 40% cumulative, Jan 31, 2027 50% cumulative. Forecast as of Oct 20, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% as of Oct 20 PDF · probability rate per day 40%/day 0% Oct 20Nov 1Dec 1Jan 1Jan 31

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast

  19. Anthropic
    $39k volume

    Claude 6

    median release

    The combined distribution reaches 92% by Dec 31, 2027.

    Claude 6 release probability Mar 31, 2027 39% cumulative, Jun 30, 2027 72% cumulative, Dec 31, 2027 92% cumulative. Forecast as of Oct 20, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Oct 20 PDF · probability rate per day 39%/day 0% Nov 1Jan 1Mar 1May 1Jun 1Aug 1Oct 1Dec 1

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast

  20. Anthropic
    $16k volume

    Claude Fable 5.2+: Output Token Price Debut?

    Only 48% probability by Jun 30, 2027

    Later dates are not priced by this market, so no median date for the change is inferred.

    Claude Fable 5.2+: Output Token Price Debut? change probability Jun 30, 2027 48% cumulative. Forecast as of Oct 20, 2026. CDF · probability change occurred by date 100% 50% 0% as of Oct 20 PDF · change probability rate per day 48%/day 0% Nov 1Dec 1Jan 1Feb 1Mar 1Apr 1May 1Jun 1

    Markets: Deadline market

    consumer change forecast (multi-deadline)

  21. Anthropic
    $4k volume

    Claude Opus 5.6+: Output Token Price Debut?

    Only 1.7% probability by Jun 30, 2027

    Later dates are not priced by this market, so no median date for the change is inferred.

    Claude Opus 5.6+: Output Token Price Debut? change probability Jun 30, 2027 1.7% cumulative. Forecast as of Oct 20, 2026. CDF · probability change occurred by date 100% 50% 0% as of Oct 20 PDF · change probability rate per day 1.7%/day 0% Nov 1Dec 1Jan 1Feb 1Mar 1Apr 1May 1Jun 1

    Markets: Deadline market

    consumer change forecast (multi-deadline)

  22. OpenAI
    $7k volume

    GPT Astra 6.1+: Output Token Price Debut?

    median date for change

    The cumulative probability reaches 50% by Jun 30, 2027.

    GPT Astra 6.1+: Output Token Price Debut? change probability Jun 30, 2027 50% cumulative. Forecast as of Oct 20, 2026. CDF · probability change occurred by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Oct 20 PDF · change probability rate per day 50%/day 0% Nov 1Dec 1Jan 1Feb 1Mar 1Apr 1May 1Jun 1

    Markets: Deadline market

    consumer change forecast (multi-deadline)

  23. OpenAI
    $18k volume

    GPT-7

    median release

    The combined distribution reaches 84% by Dec 31, 2027.

    GPT-7 release probability Jun 30, 2027 40% cumulative, Dec 31, 2027 84% cumulative. Forecast as of Oct 20, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Oct 20 PDF · probability rate per day 40%/day 0% Nov 1Jan 1Mar 1May 1Jun 1Aug 1Oct 1Dec 1

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast