AI Model Release Timeline — Prediction Market Forecasts

Generated 2026-09-11 04:38 UTC from daily Polymarket price history and live quotes.

Sep 11, 2026

Overview

Median forecast dates

Circle: median · Solid line: 25–75% IQR · Vertical cursor: forecast date · Arrow: percentile beyond priced horizon · Grey: no median or unavailable on selected date

Anthropic removes paid plan access for Fable 5
Next Mythos-Class Model
Next Gemini Flash Model (3.8+)
Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+)
OpenAI’s Astra
GPT-6
Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+)
Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+)
Next Claude Opus
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+)
Next OpenAI GPT Image Model (2.1+)
Next Claude Sonnet
Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+)
Gemini 4.0
Next Google Gemini Pro Model
Next Claude Haiku
Next Fable Model (5.2+)
Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+)
Astra removed from public access
GPT Astra 6.1+
When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?
Which week will OpenAI release Astra?
Next GPT Image Model (2.6+)
Claude 6
GPT-7
Sep 1Nov 1Feb 1Apr 1Jun 1Aug 1Nov 1Jan 1
Model or changeProviderDate signal
Anthropic removes paid plan access for Fable 5 Anthropic Not available on this date
Next Mythos-Class Model Anthropic Not available on this date
Next Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) Google Not available on this date
Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) Google Not available on this date
OpenAI’s Astra OpenAI Not available on this date
GPT-6 OpenAI Not available on this date
Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) OpenAI Median Sep 21, 2026
Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) OpenAI Median Sep 22, 2026
Next Claude Opus Anthropic Median Sep 24, 2026
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) OpenAI Median Sep 29, 2026
Next OpenAI GPT Image Model (2.1+) OpenAI Not available on this date
Next Claude Sonnet Anthropic Median Oct 13, 2026
Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) Google Median Oct 13, 2026
Gemini 4.0 Google Median Oct 22, 2026
Next Google Gemini Pro Model Google Median Oct 25, 2026
Next Claude Haiku Anthropic Median Oct 27, 2026
Next Fable Model (5.2+) Anthropic Median Oct 31, 2026
Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) Google Median Oct 31, 2026
Astra removed from public access OpenAI No median; 41% probability by Oct 31, 2026
GPT Astra 6.1+ OpenAI Median Oct 31, 2026
When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released? Google No median; 32% probability by Nov 1, 2026
Which week will OpenAI release Astra? OpenAI Not available on this date
Next GPT Image Model (2.6+) OpenAI Median Dec 31, 2026
Claude 6 Anthropic Median May 24, 2027
GPT-7 OpenAI Median Aug 3, 2027
  1. OpenAI
    $20k volume

    Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+)

    median release

    The combined distribution reaches 96% by Nov 30, 2026.

    Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) release probability Sep 10, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Sep 30, 2026 90% cumulative, Oct 31, 2026 94% cumulative, Nov 30, 2026 96% cumulative. Forecast as of Sep 11, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Sep 11 PDF · probability rate per day 4.5%/day 0% Sep 10Oct 1Nov 1Nov 30

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast

  2. OpenAI
    $8k volume

    Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+)

    median release

    The combined distribution reaches 98% by Nov 30, 2026.

    Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) release probability Sep 10, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Sep 30, 2026 85% cumulative, Oct 31, 2026 90% cumulative, Nov 30, 2026 98% cumulative. Forecast as of Sep 11, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Sep 11 PDF · probability rate per day 4.2%/day 0% Sep 10Oct 1Nov 1Nov 30

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast

  3. Anthropic
    $100k volume

    Next Claude Opus

    median release

    The combined distribution reaches 98% by Dec 31, 2026.

    Next Claude Opus release probability Sep 10, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Sep 30, 2026 74% cumulative, Oct 31, 2026 98% cumulative, Dec 31, 2026 98% cumulative. Forecast as of Sep 11, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Sep 11 PDF · probability rate per day 3.7%/day 0% Sep 10Oct 1Nov 1Dec 1Dec 31

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast

  4. OpenAI
    $6k volume

    Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+)

    median release

    The combined distribution reaches 86% by Nov 30, 2026.

    Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) release probability Sep 10, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Sep 30, 2026 52% cumulative, Oct 31, 2026 76% cumulative, Nov 30, 2026 86% cumulative. Forecast as of Sep 11, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Sep 11 PDF · probability rate per day 2.6%/day 0% Sep 10Oct 1Nov 1Nov 30

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast

  5. Anthropic
    $15k volume

    Next Claude Sonnet

    median release

    The combined distribution reaches 98% by Dec 31, 2026.

    Next Claude Sonnet release probability Sep 10, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Sep 30, 2026 22% cumulative, Oct 31, 2026 90% cumulative, Dec 31, 2026 98% cumulative. Forecast as of Sep 11, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Sep 11 PDF · probability rate per day 2.2%/day 0% Sep 10Oct 1Nov 1Dec 1Dec 31

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast

  6. Google
    $5k volume

    Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+)

    median release

    The combined distribution reaches 73% by Nov 30, 2026.

    Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) release probability Sep 30, 2026 42% cumulative, Oct 31, 2026 61% cumulative, Nov 30, 2026 73% cumulative. Forecast as of Sep 11, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Sep 11 PDF · probability rate per day 42%/day 0% Sep 11Oct 1Nov 1Nov 30

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast

  7. Google
    $459k volume

    Gemini 4.0

    median release

    The combined distribution reaches 88% by Nov 30, 2026.

    Gemini 4.0 release probability Sep 10, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Sep 15, 2026 0.6% cumulative, Sep 30, 2026 6.5% cumulative, Oct 31, 2026 69% cumulative, Nov 30, 2026 88% cumulative. Forecast as of Sep 11, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Sep 11 PDF · probability rate per day 2.0%/day 0% Sep 10Oct 1Nov 1Nov 30

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast

  8. Google
    $1.4m volume

    Next Google Gemini Pro Model

    median release

    The combined distribution reaches 68% by Oct 31, 2026.

    Next Google Gemini Pro Model release probability Sep 1, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Sep 2, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Sep 3, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Sep 4, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Sep 5, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Sep 6, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Sep 7, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Sep 8, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Sep 9, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Sep 10, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Sep 11, 2026 0.6% cumulative, Sep 12, 2026 1.2% cumulative, Sep 13, 2026 1.7% cumulative, Sep 14, 2026 1.9% cumulative, Sep 15, 2026 2.6% cumulative, Sep 16, 2026 3.1% cumulative, Sep 17, 2026 3.5% cumulative, Sep 18, 2026 3.6% cumulative, Sep 19, 2026 4.0% cumulative, Sep 20, 2026 4.3% cumulative, Sep 21, 2026 4.8% cumulative, Sep 22, 2026 5.5% cumulative, Sep 23, 2026 6.1% cumulative, Sep 24, 2026 6.6% cumulative, Sep 25, 2026 6.9% cumulative, Sep 26, 2026 7.3% cumulative, Sep 27, 2026 7.7% cumulative, Sep 28, 2026 8.1% cumulative, Sep 29, 2026 8.7% cumulative, Sep 30, 2026 10% cumulative, Oct 15, 2026 22% cumulative, Oct 31, 2026 68% cumulative. Forecast as of Sep 11, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Sep 11 PDF · probability rate per day 2.9%/day 0% Sep 1Oct 1Oct 31

    Markets: By-deadline market · Exact-date market

    release forecast (combined by/on markets)

  9. Anthropic
    $10k volume

    Next Claude Haiku

    median release

    The combined distribution reaches 59% by Dec 31, 2026.

    Next Claude Haiku release probability Sep 10, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Oct 15, 2026 26% cumulative, Oct 31, 2026 59% cumulative, Dec 31, 2026 59% cumulative. Forecast as of Sep 11, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Sep 11 PDF · probability rate per day 2.0%/day 0% Sep 10Oct 1Nov 1Dec 1Dec 31

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast

  10. Anthropic
    $17k volume

    Next Fable Model (5.2+)

    median release

    The combined distribution reaches 86% by Dec 31, 2026.

    Next Fable Model (5.2+) release probability Oct 31, 2026 54% cumulative, Dec 31, 2026 86% cumulative. Forecast as of Sep 11, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Sep 11 PDF · probability rate per day 54%/day 0% Sep 11Oct 1Nov 1Dec 1Dec 31

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast

  11. Google
    $2k volume

    Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+)

    median release

    The combined distribution reaches 94% by Nov 30, 2026.

    Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) release probability Oct 31, 2026 92% cumulative, Nov 30, 2026 94% cumulative. Forecast as of Sep 11, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Sep 11 PDF · probability rate per day 92%/day 0% Sep 11Oct 1Nov 1Nov 30

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast

  12. OpenAI
    $2k volume

    GPT Astra 6.1+

    median release

    The combined distribution reaches 91% by Dec 31, 2026.

    GPT Astra 6.1+ release probability Oct 31, 2026 72% cumulative, Dec 31, 2026 91% cumulative. Forecast as of Sep 11, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Sep 11 PDF · probability rate per day 72%/day 0% Sep 11Oct 1Nov 1Dec 1Dec 31

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast

  13. OpenAI
    $36 volume

    Astra removed from public access

    Only 41% probability by Oct 31, 2026

    Later dates are not priced by this market, so no median date for the change is inferred.

    Astra removed from public access change probability Sep 30, 2026 5.0% cumulative, Oct 31, 2026 41% cumulative. Forecast as of Sep 11, 2026. CDF · probability change occurred by date 100% 50% 0% as of Sep 11 PDF · change probability rate per day 5.0%/day 0% Sep 11Oct 1Oct 31

    Markets: Deadline market

    consumer change forecast (multi-deadline)

  14. Google
    $44k volume

    When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?

    Only 32% probability by Nov 1, 2026

    Later dates are not priced by this market, so no median date for the change is inferred.

    When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released? change probability Nov 1, 2026 32% cumulative. Forecast as of Sep 11, 2026. CDF · probability change occurred by date 100% 50% 0% as of Sep 11 PDF · change probability rate per day 32%/day 0% Sep 11Oct 1Nov 1

    Markets: Deadline market

    consumer change forecast (multi-deadline)

  15. OpenAI
    $0 volume

    Next GPT Image Model (2.6+)

    median release

    The combined distribution reaches 52% by Jan 31, 2027.

    Next GPT Image Model (2.6+) release probability Dec 31, 2026 50% cumulative, Jan 31, 2027 52% cumulative. Forecast as of Sep 11, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Sep 11 PDF · probability rate per day 50%/day 0% Sep 11Oct 1Nov 1Dec 1Jan 1Jan 31

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast

  16. Anthropic
    $20k volume

    Claude 6

    median release

    The combined distribution reaches 86% by Dec 31, 2027.

    Claude 6 release probability Mar 31, 2027 34% cumulative, Jun 30, 2027 60% cumulative, Dec 31, 2027 86% cumulative. Forecast as of Sep 11, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Sep 11 PDF · probability rate per day 34%/day 0% Oct 1Dec 1Feb 1Apr 1Jun 1Aug 1Oct 1Dec 1

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast

  17. OpenAI
    $12k volume

    GPT-7

    median release

    The combined distribution reaches 80% by Dec 31, 2027.

    GPT-7 release probability Jun 30, 2027 43% cumulative, Dec 31, 2027 80% cumulative. Forecast as of Sep 11, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Sep 11 PDF · probability rate per day 43%/day 0% Oct 1Dec 1Feb 1Apr 1Jun 1Aug 1Oct 1Dec 1

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast