AI Model Release Timeline — Prediction Market Forecasts

Generated 2026-09-05 10:33 UTC from daily Polymarket price history and live quotes.

Sep 5, 2026

Overview

Median forecast dates

Circle: median · Solid line: 25–75% IQR · Vertical cursor: forecast date · Arrow: percentile beyond priced horizon · Grey: no median or unavailable on selected date

Anthropic removes paid plan access for Fable 5
Next Mythos-Class Model
Next Gemini Flash Model (3.8+)
Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+)
OpenAI’s Astra
GPT-6
Next OpenAI GPT Image Model (2.1+)
Next Claude Opus
Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+)
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+)
Next Claude Sonnet
Gemini 4.0
Next Google Gemini Pro Model
Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+)
Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+)
Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+)
When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?
Which week will OpenAI release Astra?
Next Claude Haiku
GPT Astra 6.1+
Next Fable Model (5.2+)
Claude 6
GPT-7
Sep 1Nov 1Feb 1Apr 1Jun 1Aug 1Nov 1Jan 1
Model or changeProviderDate signal
Anthropic removes paid plan access for Fable 5 Anthropic Not available on this date
Next Mythos-Class Model Anthropic Not available on this date
Next Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) Google Not available on this date
Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) Google Not available on this date
OpenAI’s Astra OpenAI Not available on this date
GPT-6 OpenAI Not available on this date
Next OpenAI GPT Image Model (2.1+) OpenAI Median Sep 22, 2026
Next Claude Opus Anthropic Median Sep 23, 2026
Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) OpenAI Median Sep 24, 2026
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) OpenAI Median Sep 29, 2026
Next Claude Sonnet Anthropic Median Oct 1, 2026
Gemini 4.0 Google Median Oct 16, 2026
Next Google Gemini Pro Model Google Median Oct 19, 2026
Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) Google Median Oct 20, 2026
Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) OpenAI Median Oct 23, 2026
Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) Google Median Oct 31, 2026
When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released? Google No median; 32% probability by Nov 1, 2026
Which week will OpenAI release Astra? OpenAI Not available on this date
Next Claude Haiku Anthropic Median Nov 6, 2026
GPT Astra 6.1+ OpenAI Median Nov 29, 2026
Next Fable Model (5.2+) Anthropic Median Dec 17, 2026
Claude 6 Anthropic Median Jul 17, 2027
GPT-7 OpenAI Median Sep 28, 2027
  1. OpenAI
    $17k volume

    Next OpenAI GPT Image Model (2.1+)

    median release

    The combined distribution reaches 72% by Sep 30, 2026.

    Next OpenAI GPT Image Model (2.1+) release probability Sep 4, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Sep 30, 2026 72% cumulative. Forecast as of Sep 5, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Sep 5 PDF · probability rate per day 2.8%/day 0% Sep 4Sep 30

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast

  2. Anthropic
    $83k volume

    Next Claude Opus

    median release

    The combined distribution reaches 99% by Dec 31, 2026.

    Next Claude Opus release probability Sep 4, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Sep 30, 2026 67% cumulative, Oct 31, 2026 97% cumulative, Dec 31, 2026 99% cumulative. Forecast as of Sep 5, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Sep 5 PDF · probability rate per day 2.6%/day 0% Sep 4Oct 1Nov 1Dec 1Dec 31

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast

  3. OpenAI
    $16k volume

    Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+)

    median release

    The combined distribution reaches 90% by Nov 30, 2026.

    Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) release probability Sep 4, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Sep 30, 2026 64% cumulative, Oct 31, 2026 72% cumulative, Nov 30, 2026 90% cumulative. Forecast as of Sep 5, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Sep 5 PDF · probability rate per day 2.4%/day 0% Sep 4Oct 1Nov 1Nov 30

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast

  4. OpenAI
    $5k volume

    Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+)

    median release

    The combined distribution reaches 75% by Nov 30, 2026.

    Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) release probability Sep 4, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Sep 30, 2026 51% cumulative, Oct 31, 2026 66% cumulative, Nov 30, 2026 75% cumulative. Forecast as of Sep 5, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Sep 5 PDF · probability rate per day 2.0%/day 0% Sep 4Oct 1Nov 1Nov 30

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast

  5. Anthropic
    $12k volume

    Next Claude Sonnet

    median release

    The combined distribution reaches 97% by Dec 31, 2026.

    Next Claude Sonnet release probability Sep 4, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Sep 30, 2026 50% cumulative, Oct 31, 2026 80% cumulative, Dec 31, 2026 97% cumulative. Forecast as of Sep 5, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Sep 5 PDF · probability rate per day 1.9%/day 0% Sep 4Oct 1Nov 1Dec 1Dec 31

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast

  6. Google
    $407k volume

    Gemini 4.0

    median release

    The combined distribution reaches 90% by Nov 30, 2026.

    Gemini 4.0 release probability Sep 4, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Sep 15, 2026 9.8% cumulative, Sep 30, 2026 30% cumulative, Oct 31, 2026 69% cumulative, Nov 30, 2026 90% cumulative. Forecast as of Sep 5, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Sep 5 PDF · probability rate per day 1.4%/day 0% Sep 4Oct 1Nov 1Nov 30

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast

  7. Google
    $1.3m volume

    Next Google Gemini Pro Model

    median release

    The combined distribution reaches 70% by Oct 31, 2026.

    Next Google Gemini Pro Model release probability Sep 1, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Sep 2, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Sep 3, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Sep 4, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Sep 5, 2026 0.4% cumulative, Sep 6, 2026 0.6% cumulative, Sep 7, 2026 1.0% cumulative, Sep 8, 2026 1.1% cumulative, Sep 9, 2026 1.3% cumulative, Sep 10, 2026 1.5% cumulative, Sep 11, 2026 1.9% cumulative, Sep 12, 2026 2.3% cumulative, Sep 13, 2026 2.5% cumulative, Sep 14, 2026 2.6% cumulative, Sep 15, 2026 3.5% cumulative, Sep 16, 2026 4.5% cumulative, Sep 17, 2026 6.0% cumulative, Sep 18, 2026 6.1% cumulative, Sep 19, 2026 6.7% cumulative, Sep 20, 2026 7.2% cumulative, Sep 21, 2026 7.8% cumulative, Sep 22, 2026 9.2% cumulative, Sep 23, 2026 10% cumulative, Sep 24, 2026 11% cumulative, Sep 25, 2026 11% cumulative, Sep 26, 2026 12% cumulative, Sep 27, 2026 12% cumulative, Sep 28, 2026 13% cumulative, Sep 29, 2026 14% cumulative, Sep 30, 2026 21% cumulative, Oct 31, 2026 70% cumulative. Forecast as of Sep 5, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Sep 5 PDF · probability rate per day 7.2%/day 0% Sep 1Oct 1Oct 31

    Markets: By-deadline market · Exact-date market

    release forecast (combined by/on markets)

  8. Google
    $5k volume

    Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+)

    median release

    The combined distribution reaches 70% by Nov 30, 2026.

    Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) release probability Sep 30, 2026 42% cumulative, Oct 31, 2026 54% cumulative, Nov 30, 2026 70% cumulative. Forecast as of Sep 5, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Sep 5 PDF · probability rate per day 42%/day 0% Sep 5Oct 1Nov 1Nov 30

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast

  9. OpenAI
    $5k volume

    Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+)

    median release

    The combined distribution reaches 87% by Nov 30, 2026.

    Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) release probability Sep 4, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Sep 30, 2026 38% cumulative, Oct 31, 2026 55% cumulative, Nov 30, 2026 87% cumulative. Forecast as of Sep 5, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Sep 5 PDF · probability rate per day 1.5%/day 0% Sep 4Oct 1Nov 1Nov 30

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast

  10. Google
    $2k volume

    Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+)

    median release

    The combined distribution reaches 90% by Nov 30, 2026.

    Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) release probability Oct 31, 2026 86% cumulative, Nov 30, 2026 90% cumulative. Forecast as of Sep 5, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Sep 5 PDF · probability rate per day 86%/day 0% Sep 5Oct 1Nov 1Nov 30

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast

  11. Google
    $38k volume

    When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?

    Only 32% probability by Nov 1, 2026

    Later dates are not priced by this market, so no median date for the change is inferred.

    When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released? change probability Nov 1, 2026 32% cumulative. Forecast as of Sep 5, 2026. CDF · probability change occurred by date 100% 50% 0% as of Sep 5 PDF · change probability rate per day 32%/day 0% Sep 5Oct 1Nov 1

    Markets: Deadline market

    consumer change forecast (multi-deadline)

  12. Anthropic
    $9k volume

    Next Claude Haiku

    median release

    The combined distribution reaches 60% by Dec 31, 2026.

    Next Claude Haiku release probability Sep 4, 2026 0.0% cumulative, Oct 15, 2026 46% cumulative, Oct 31, 2026 49% cumulative, Dec 31, 2026 60% cumulative. Forecast as of Sep 5, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Sep 5 PDF · probability rate per day 1.1%/day 0% Sep 4Oct 1Nov 1Dec 1Dec 31

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast

  13. OpenAI
    $1 volume

    GPT Astra 6.1+

    median release

    The combined distribution reaches 74% by Dec 31, 2026.

    GPT Astra 6.1+ release probability Oct 31, 2026 29% cumulative, Dec 31, 2026 74% cumulative. Forecast as of Sep 5, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Sep 5 PDF · probability rate per day 29%/day 0% Sep 5Oct 1Nov 1Dec 1Dec 31

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast

  14. Anthropic
    $165 volume

    Next Fable Model (5.2+)

    median release

    The combined distribution reaches 59% by Dec 31, 2026.

    Next Fable Model (5.2+) release probability Oct 31, 2026 19% cumulative, Dec 31, 2026 59% cumulative. Forecast as of Sep 5, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Sep 5 PDF · probability rate per day 19%/day 0% Sep 5Oct 1Nov 1Dec 1Dec 31

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast

  15. Anthropic
    $545 volume

    Claude 6

    median release

    The combined distribution reaches 84% by Dec 31, 2027.

    Claude 6 release probability Mar 31, 2027 26% cumulative, Jun 30, 2027 46% cumulative, Dec 31, 2027 84% cumulative. Forecast as of Sep 5, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Sep 5 PDF · probability rate per day 26%/day 0% Oct 1Dec 1Feb 1Apr 1Jun 1Aug 1Oct 1Dec 1

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast

  16. OpenAI
    $5k volume

    GPT-7

    median release

    The combined distribution reaches 76% by Dec 31, 2027.

    GPT-7 release probability Jun 30, 2027 26% cumulative, Dec 31, 2027 76% cumulative. Forecast as of Sep 5, 2026. CDF · probability released by date 100% 50% 0% median as of Sep 5 PDF · probability rate per day 26%/day 0% Oct 1Dec 1Feb 1Apr 1Jun 1Aug 1Oct 1Dec 1

    Markets: By-deadline market

    release forecast